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Analysts Expect The NBH To Keep 1W Depo Rate at 6.45% on May 17

HUNGARY
  • Political divergence between Hungary and the EU regarding ban on Russian oil import has led to a significant rise in HUF implied vol in recent weeks.
  • EURHUF reached a local high at 393.10 on Monday before consolidating lower in the past two days.
    • Key resistance to watch on the topside remains at 400, which represents the pair’s all-time high.
    • On the downside, first support stands at 382.60, followed by 380.
  • The HUF has been the most vulnerable EM currency in the current environment due to the surge in political risk premium and the ‘low’ level of FX reserves (relative to other CEE member, particularly Czech Republic).
  • Analysts expect the NBH to keep its 1W deposit rate steady on Thursday at 6.45% despite the elevated inflationary pressures and the ‘weak’ HUF.
  • NBH Deputy Governor Virag mentioned in a conference that he expects CPI inflation to reach double digits in the near term and that real rates must turn positive in order to reach inflation target.
  • NBH will publish a report on the housing market today at 3pm CET.
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