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Analysts Eye Hawkish Minutes Risks (2/3)

FED
A few analyst previews of the March FOMC meeting minutes, most of which identify hawkish as opposed to dovish risks:
  • Barclays: Minutes to provide more detailed info on the FOMC's assessment of the state of the economy at the time of the meeting, and in particular about their interpretation of robust data releases and a summary of a discussion surrounding the impact of banking turmoil. Could push back against dovish interpretation of new guidance, in part by suggesting it reflects greater uncertainty rather than a lower modal projection for the SEP's rate path.
  • BofA: We will be looking for additional details around credit tightening expectations, the timing and magnitude of the GDP impact. With the median forecast now showing only one more rate hike in May, we will also be looking for any color around the terminal rate and what policymakers would need to see to stop hiking.
  • Deutsche: Minutes should reflect the "very strong consensus" Powell noted for the 25bp increase, but should be viewed within the context of the events that occurred in close proximity to the meeting and also with the knowledge that in recent weeks some evidence of stability has emerged.
  • TD: With banking stress now appearing to be somewhat contained, the minutes might emphasize the hawkish sentiment in the Dot Plot distribution.
  • UBS: The widespread assumption among participants that the rate hike in March was appropriate and another hike or more would also be appropriate, the minutes risk sounding hawkish relative to the market not fully pricing in a 25bp rate hike at the next meeting. Any discussed pause would have more likely been viewed as postponement, and the minutes may say that. Recent events will bring into sharper focus a discussion of balance sheet policy, though discussion may or may not have been developed/broad at the Mar meeting.
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