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Analysts Look To Minutes For Hike Vs Pause Debate (2/2)

FED
Some sell-side previews of the May minutes:
  • BMO: The minutes are "likely to serve as a pivot point as the Fed’s debate in May most likely contained the conversation about pausing at the June meeting. While a pause might not strictly translate to terminal, it goes without saying that the bar to restart hikes will be very high in the current environment."
  • BofA: Looking "for how long the Fed may need to assess its policy stance, what outcomes may warrant further tightening and how the committee viewed the SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey)... [and] to see if the Fed staff's view for a mild recession later this year remains their base case."
  • Deutsche: Looking for "any indication about the relative size of the coalitions supporting further rate hikes versus those in favor of pausing" in June.
  • Mizuho: "The tone and substance ... are expected to show there was a good, two-way discussion before the Committee opted for the tenth consecutive rate hike. [The lack of vote dissents] probably reflected the Committee’s desire to signal that the banking industry was still fundamentally sound...not hiking could have been seen by market participants as a sign the Committee was worried about undisclosed weakness in the system. Beyond financial stability messaging, the debate over the inflation and real growth outlook was likely much more far ranging."
  • TD: Minutes "to expand on the Fed's policy views amid [macro/banking/inflation] uncertainties, with officials split on what to do next. A June hike is likely to stay on the table."
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