MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 100BPS TO 12.25%

MNI BRIEF: US Budget Deficit $367B In Nov; FYTD Record $624B

MNI BRIEF: Former BOC Dep Beaudry Sees 2.75%-3% Rate In 2025

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: US NOV TREASURY BUDGET -$366.8B

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BTP Auction on Thursday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -1.42M TO 422.0M DEC 06 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Analysts (Mostly) Still Looking For June Cut After GDP [2/2]

CANADA
  • National: “GDP per capita has fallen sharply since monetary tightening began, by 3.2% - a decline of a magnitude only seen in recession (right chart). What lies ahead is unlikely to be more enviable, as we estimate that 30% of the impact of previous rate hikes on consumption remains to be seen, given the lag in monetary policy transmission. In light of this morning's report, we continue to see a buildup of excess supply in the economy over the coming months, with a larger negative output gap. Under these circumstances, we still expect monetary easing to start in June.”
  • RBC: Q4 GDP growth couldn’t prevent “a 6th consecutive decline in output on a per capita basis. Details were on the soft side, with output propped up by stronger external demand as exports rose while domestic demand, particularly business spending, continued to soften. The bottom still isn't falling out of the economy in a way that would push the BoC to shift quickly to looser monetary policy. Our base-case assumption is that the BoC will shift to interest rate cuts in June.”
  • TD: “While today's report came in better than consensus and much better than what the BoC was thinking, the narrative on the Canadian economy remains the same. […] Stripping out international drivers, the economy contracted, while GDP per capita has now declined in five of the last six quarters. The BoC has recognized this weakness in recent commentaries, but it is patiently waiting for inflation to follow suit. We think the wheels are in motion for this to come through the data in the coming months and have penciled in the first BoC rate cut for June.”
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets Bank of Canada Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.