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Analysts Note Importance Of Cabinet Announcements Following Runoff Vote

BRAZIL
  • * Goldman Sachs: Overall, post-election financial markets are expected to react positively to signs of social peace, political stability, and policies and reforms that would leverage investment and growth and leave behind a long period of very modest growth and stagnant social and economic conditions. After all, between 1Q2011 and 2Q2022 average real GDP growth per capita was zero (-0.01%), and as of 2Q2022 real investment spending (GFCF) was still 10.7% below the 2Q2013 level. A policy regime shift is (urgently) needed.
    • In the coming weeks, market and asset price direction will likely be a function of policy statements. The market will be paying particular attention to key cabinet nominations, the budget for 2023 and the magnitude of the spending-ceiling waiver to accommodate fiscally expensive campaign promises.
  • * JPMorgan noted that while Lula did not give any hints on a potential economic team, they believe that the incentives favor the announcement of a more market friendly name as Minister of Finance, such as Henrique Meirelles. The timing of the announcement of the economic team is uncertain, and could happen both in the very near term, or over the following month.
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