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Analysts On April Labour Report [1/2]

CANADA DATA
Some of those still looking for a June cut also need to see a subdued core CPI print beforehand.
  • BMO: “Today's showy headline jobs increase will give the BoC some pause, since it reinforces the point that the economy is clearly not rolling over. Still, the reality is that economic slack is still rising, with the jobless rate up 1 point in the past year and the number of unemployed jumping 24% y/y, helping cool wages. That may be the main takeaway for policymakers. Markets are now back to viewing the June rate decision as a toss-up, with the April CPI on May 21 looming even larger. Our call is for a rate trim [in June], but that will require a seriously cool core CPI result.”
  • CIBC: “While today's increase in employment was much better than expected, this strength appears to largely reflect a further surge in the base population as the labour force count catches up with the quarterly population tally. With the unemployment rate remaining higher than it was at the start of the year and wage pressures easing slightly, the data is still consistent with a gradual loosening of labour market conditions. We continue to forecast a first interest rate cut at the next meeting in June, although after today's data that call relies even more heavily on core measures of inflation remaining subdued within the next CPI print.”
  • Desjardins: “Yields are higher across the Government of Canada yield curve. But we’re not convinced that this report will materially change the BoC’s assessment of the labour market. So we’re sticking with our call that the central bank cuts rates in June.”
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