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Analysts On Dec Labour Report [1/2]

CANADA
  • BMO: “Today's sluggish results suggest that the softening seen in the broader economy is finally catching up with the job market.” Previously sturdy employment gains “may now be shifting. If so, this would suggest that the jobless rate is almost certain to head higher, pushing above 6% in coming months.” “For the BoC, the sticky wage strength, combined with the solid U.S. payroll results today, will more than offset the sluggish domestic job tally. We continue to expect the Bank to be very patient on the rate cutting front.”
  • CIBC: “While a further decline in the employment rate is evidence that the labour market continues to weaken, the decline in participation and acceleration in wage growth suggests that it isn't loose enough for the BoC to cut interest rates quite yet. We continue to see the unemployment rate creeping higher in 1H24, reaching a peak of between 6-6.5%, which would bring a first interest rate cut from the Bank in June.”
  • Desjardins: “While headline jobs numbers were often impressive in 2023, the labour market is nonetheless softening, and skyrocketing population growth continues to have mixed inflation and monetary policy implications. In all, today’s data doesn’t change our view that the BoC’s next move will be a cut in 2Q24.”
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