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Analysts On Jobless Claims

US DATA
  • GS: “Jobless claims exhibit elevated volatility during the week of Thanksgiving—likely due to seasonal adjustment difficulties—which we suspect contributed to this week’s decline. We believe that persistent seasonal distortions more than explain the 203k increase in continuing claims since early September, and expect those distortions to boost the level of continuing claims by an additional 125k by March.”
  • JPM: “This recent noise in the [continuing claims] data makes it hard to detect a clear recent trend. More generally, we think that seasonal adjustment issues may have made the trend in seasonally adjusted continuing claims filings appear worse in recent months than the underlying unadjusted data would have warranted using some alternative approaches to seasonal adjustment.”
  • Pantheon: “[Continuing claims] remain elevated compared to the level of initial claims. The usual late-cycle story in these numbers is a sustained increase in initial claims, but this cycle is unusual in multiple ways. With that in mind, the sustained increase in continuing claims looks like a warning sign of emerging labor market stress, as people who have lost their jobs are taking much longer to find new ones. The rising proportion of people who think that jobs are becoming harder to get, according to the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey, tells the same story.”
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