MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, June 27

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Analysts On Retail Sales

CANADA DATA
  • BMO: “Discretionary consumer spending is getting held back by inflation and surging borrowing costs. Another sign of sluggish growth for the Canadian economy while the BoC, at the same time, grapples with above-target inflation.”
  • CIBC: “Overall, this report is a signpost that consumer strength continued to wane in Q3, and continues to suggest that the Q1 strength in the consumer was a flash in the pan. We expect the unemployment rate to rise further ahead, and combined with the impact of mortgage renewals at higher interest rates, that will add pressure to consumption, likely leaving the BoC on hold for the rest of this year.”
  • National: Retail sale volumes “were down 0.2% and followed a similar decline in the prior month. This represents an even poorer performance considering the surging population. Looking ahead, the preliminary estimate for nominal sales deflated by goods prices from the CPI suggests a 0.9% decrease in August for real retail sales.”
  • TD: “Monetary policy's long and variable lags are leaving a permanent mark on the Canadian consumer. […] Families who rely on a more interest-rate sensitive consumer credit have already fully experienced the bitterness of higher rate medicine, and retail sales in real terms are softening. We think that weaker demand will translate into cooler inflation in the coming months, enabling the BoC to will remain on hold for the rest of the year.”
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