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Analysts On Retail Sales Report

CANADA
  • BMO: A better-than-expected retail sales report was supported by autos, which masked weakness in other sectors. GDP looks to be on track for a modest decline in June, slowing the pace of quarterly growth as higher rates continue to bite.
  • CIBC: Goods consumption looks to have swung from a boost to a drag on growth in Q2, leaving business investment as a more important source of growth. Still, Q2 GDP is tracking only slightly below the BoC’s 1.5% forecast. We've pencilled in a final 25bp hike for September, but that's a fairly close call and one that could be impacted if the flash estimate for July GDP looks weak enough.
  • Desjardins: The latest data continues to point to weaker economic growth going forward, which is in line with what the BoC is expecting. Their latest tracking has GDP for Q2 sitting around 1.4%, slightly below the BoC’s 1.5%. (taken from BBG)
  • TD: The report puts personal consumption expenditures on track for 1% annualized growth in Q2. Looking ahead, spending might still regain its footing with the help of government's grocery rebates. These were aimed at supporting lower-income households that typically have a higher propensity to consume. Like Stats Canada's advance estimate, our internal data points to a rebound in monthly spending in July.
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