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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
From our September FOMC Review: despite the surprisingly hawkish Dot Plot at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, of 27 sell-side analysts’ reviews of the September FOMC meeting that MNI read, only one included a view change - Goldman Sachs, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to 4Q 2024 (was 2Q 2024).
They write:
- While the FOMC won’t hike this year (the new inflation forecasts leave ample room for a downside surprise), the September meeting raises the bar for rate cuts in 2024. Participants appeared to move away from the view that monetary policy tightening could weigh on growth with a long lag next year, which weakens one argument for cutting.
- We think this means that inflation will have to fall further than we previously assumed for the FOMC to cut. And Powell volunteered that neutral rates might have risen, with S-R higher than the Dot Plot L-R– further weakening the case for cuts next year.
MNI-compiled Analyst views for the Fed's future rate path below (assumed unchanged from pre-FOMC unless we explicitly saw otherwise in the meeting reviews):
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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