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MNI BRIEF: Canada Opposition Leader Removed From Legislature

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Small upward revision to UK manufacturing PMI; little market impact

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Analysts On Today's GDP Report [2/2]

CANADA
  • RBC: “The GDP growth backdrop in Canada continues to soften, in contrast to sticky inflation prints that are still running above the BoC’s 2% target”. “Firmer-than-expected inflation readings in Canada have increased the odds of another BoC interest rate hike this year” … but “there are growing signs that the impact of earlier interest rate increases are working to cool the economy”. RBC don’t assume additional rate hikes from here.
  • Scotia: Canada’s economy has stalled for two quarters, but resilience is avoiding recession despite Mother Nature and striking workers as transitory shocks continue to cloud an understanding of underlying growth. GDP is the least important indicator on the path to October’s BoC decision as trend inflation risk remains pointed higher”.
  • TD: Now see downside risk to their modest expectation for 1% growth in Q3, considerably lower than the BoC’s 1.5% estimate. With the BoC balancing “a slowing growth backdrop against renewed inflation pressures in August, especially across the BoC's core measures” […] “next week's update to employment and wages combined with updates to September's inflation figures next month will be the two key metrics on watch”.
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