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Analysts On Today’s Core PCE Estimates

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
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Analysts estimates had been averaging close to 0.27% M/M for core PCE in March but yesterday’s strength in Q1 data has seen some lift their March forecast along with the likelihood of revisions to Jan and Feb.

  • GS: Core PCE estimate increased 3bps to 0.33% M/M for March.
  • MS: They haven’t changed their forecast for core PCE inflation at 0.25% M/M in March but Thursday’s print implies 0.48% M/M for core PCE inflation, “with the recognition that some of it could instead come in upward revisions to January and February.” They note that core services ex housing also came in above expectations at 5.08% in Q1 vs their estimate of 4.5%.
  • NWM: The quarterly data introduced “significant upside risk” to today's monthly data. “The strength in Q1 is most likely to be concentrated in the January print with a much firmer 0.5% m/m gain for that month but we can't rule out a higher March print either (closer to 0.4% than currently projected "low" 0.3%).”
  • TD: “Given the upside surprise in the latter, we now anticipate that March PCE inflation will print a higher 0.34% M/M vs our initial forecast at 0.25% M/M. […] We are also assuming upward revisions to Jan and Feb core PCE numbers.”
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Analysts estimates had been averaging close to 0.27% M/M for core PCE in March but yesterday’s strength in Q1 data has seen some lift their March forecast along with the likelihood of revisions to Jan and Feb.

  • GS: Core PCE estimate increased 3bps to 0.33% M/M for March.
  • MS: They haven’t changed their forecast for core PCE inflation at 0.25% M/M in March but Thursday’s print implies 0.48% M/M for core PCE inflation, “with the recognition that some of it could instead come in upward revisions to January and February.” They note that core services ex housing also came in above expectations at 5.08% in Q1 vs their estimate of 4.5%.
  • NWM: The quarterly data introduced “significant upside risk” to today's monthly data. “The strength in Q1 is most likely to be concentrated in the January print with a much firmer 0.5% m/m gain for that month but we can't rule out a higher March print either (closer to 0.4% than currently projected "low" 0.3%).”
  • TD: “Given the upside surprise in the latter, we now anticipate that March PCE inflation will print a higher 0.34% M/M vs our initial forecast at 0.25% M/M. […] We are also assuming upward revisions to Jan and Feb core PCE numbers.”