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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Analysts See Close Call Between 0.2/0.3% M/M For Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Wednesday’s US CPI report headlines the weekly calendar, with Bloomberg consensus currently looking for a 0.2% M/M print for core CPI in what’s a close call with a 0.3% M/M.
  • Indeed, our initial review of 13 unrounded analyst estimates sees these generally more detailed projections centered around 0.25% M/M for core CPI in December.
  • That would be a moderation from the 0.31% M/M in November and four months oscillating between 0.28-0.31% M/M since August.
  • Initial core PCE estimates meanwhile point to a softer outright print, averaging 0.21% M/M (initial range of 0.19-0.27), but directionally it's different as it would be an acceleration after a soft 0.115% M/M in Nov. Prior to that soft spot, core PCE had averaged 0.26% M/M in Sep-Oct.
  • Tomorrow’s PPI report will no doubt impact core PCE tracking before a greater convergence in analyst estimates after CPI on Wednesday.
  • There's a greater difference between unrounded estimates and the broader median when it comes to headline CPI tracking, however. Unrounded analyst estimates average 0.39% M/M, and whilst 20 of 48 Bloomberg estimates look for a 0.4% increase, 24 look for 0.3% and 4 look for just 0.2%, leaving an overall average of 0.33% M/M. 
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  • Wednesday’s US CPI report headlines the weekly calendar, with Bloomberg consensus currently looking for a 0.2% M/M print for core CPI in what’s a close call with a 0.3% M/M.
  • Indeed, our initial review of 13 unrounded analyst estimates sees these generally more detailed projections centered around 0.25% M/M for core CPI in December.
  • That would be a moderation from the 0.31% M/M in November and four months oscillating between 0.28-0.31% M/M since August.
  • Initial core PCE estimates meanwhile point to a softer outright print, averaging 0.21% M/M (initial range of 0.19-0.27), but directionally it's different as it would be an acceleration after a soft 0.115% M/M in Nov. Prior to that soft spot, core PCE had averaged 0.26% M/M in Sep-Oct.
  • Tomorrow’s PPI report will no doubt impact core PCE tracking before a greater convergence in analyst estimates after CPI on Wednesday.
  • There's a greater difference between unrounded estimates and the broader median when it comes to headline CPI tracking, however. Unrounded analyst estimates average 0.39% M/M, and whilst 20 of 48 Bloomberg estimates look for a 0.4% increase, 24 look for 0.3% and 4 look for just 0.2%, leaving an overall average of 0.33% M/M. 
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