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Analysts See Further Easing of Inflation in 2023

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Following this morning’s inflation data, Goldman Sachs have revised their inflation forecast for 2023 lower from 6.2% to 5.8% and from 4.4% to 4.1% in 2024 due to downside inflation surprises in April and May, rand strengthening and lower oil prices.
  • As such, their confidence that the SARB has completed its hiking cycle has increased and they have brought forward their forecast for the first rate cut from Q2-24 to Q1-24. Risks to the rate outlook continue to hinge mostly on Rand developments, in their view.
  • Meanwhile, Investec say the CPI inflation rate is likely to continue to subside over most of 2023, reaching the midpoint of the inflation target of 4.5% y/y in 2024, and then remaining around 4.5% y/y over the forecast period.
  • They expect that CPI inflation will average near 6.0% y/y for this year, and if the rand does not see further, marked weakness, it could come out just below 6.0% y/y, at 5.7% y/y.
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