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And as a chaser... TD on trading the FOMC: -....>

FED
FED: And as a chaser... TD on trading the FOMC:
- Base case (no new action incl on forward guidance and QE; dot plot shows no
tightening through at least end-2022) -  "We don't see much of a reaction in the
base case, but rates could fall a little given the recent bear steepening
selloff. The rates market focus will be on forward guidance and specificity
around QE." Reaction: 10Yr yld -2bps, 5s30s +2bps.
- In dovish case (10% prob), Fwd guidance strengthened and QE announced: 10Yr
-10bps, 5s30s -5bps.
- In hawkish case (5% prob), Fed cites signs of recovery, plans to scale back
QE, dot plot suggests poss tightening before end 2022. 10Yr +8bps, 5s30s +5bps.

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