And BMO's Lyngen and Kohli.........>

US TSYS/RESEARCH: And BMO's Lyngen and Kohli contemplate the year ahead and said

they are "awaiting an inflection point on the data front in which one of 3

things occurs: 1) inflation never materializes and the Fed blinks on the path

toward higher rates, 2) the realities of the data leave the market reluctant to

price in more hikes, or 3) inflation returns to the 2% level and the Fed is

emboldened to press on with the normalization process."

- They add that "in the first 2 scenarios, we suspect that a belly led rally

would resteepen the 5s/30s curve as the market lowers the terminal policy rate

assumption. In the case of the 3rd outcome, we would expect to see an attempt to

price back in some term-premium but that will be accompanied by higher terminal

rate estimates that will eventually result in a flatter curve over time."