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US VIEW: And BMO's Lyngen said further that "higher policy rates have
historically led to lower inflation, ight? The 'mystery' identified by Yellen
within the core-inflation trend certainly holds true, if one assumes that
unemployment below 4.5% must be inflationary, but the disconnect between
improving employment and benign wage growth goes a reasonable distance in
explaining why core inflation has remain subdued, at least to us."
- He adds that "the counterargument that we're in a lower productivity
environment only holds true if modest wage growth translates into realized
inflation, and it's the absence of that follow-through that leaves us
increasingly worried that the FOMC might be in the midst of committing a policy
- He adds "chatter that" former Fed Gov. Warsh "is now the front-runner to
replace Yellen next year" as Fed Chair "only serves to further elevate those
concerns, as he has long been critical of QE and is believed to favor a more
hawkish policy stance."