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And NatWest economists Cummins and Gerard...>

US VIEW
US VIEW: And NatWest economists Cummins and Gerard added on the Fed that the
"key issue is not whether the new Fed Chair/Board members will be hawks or
doves, but rather that the wholesale personnel turnover is likely to lead to a
change in the overall approach to monetary policy. Almost all of the names that
have been floated for a Fed Board position in recent months have expressed
support for a more disciplined (i.e. rules-based) approach to policy."
- "At this time, most monetary policy rules do suggest that rates should
continue to move higher," they said. "The real difference is that, by following
a policy rule and/or acting more disciplined, the hurdle for deviating from the
path set out will be higher. If that is the case, than the market will need to
rethink its multi-year bias for always expecting the Fed to under-deliver. Given
the change in personnel, the odds of the Fed under-delivering on the rate hikes
that have been signalled (as the Yellen-led Fed did in 2015 and 2016) will be
lower."

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