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Free AccessAnd SMRA's John Canavan said "barring....>
US TSYS/2Y: And SMRA's John Canavan said "barring a surprise jump in what has
been poor foreign demand for 2-year notes in recent months," the 1pm ET $26B 2Y
auction "may be a bit of a struggle."
- He added Tsy cited "the possibility that the 2-year and/or 5-year note
auctions could be reopenings. If the 2-year note auction stopout rate is
anywhere from 1.625% to 1.749%, it will automatically be considered a reopening
of the 1 5/8% of 12/31/19 old 5-year note, of which there is already $35B
outstanding." But he cited "little chance of the 2-year note auctioning being a
reopening."
- He noted 2-year yield "jumped steadily from a low of 1.25% on Sept 8th" to a
recent high of 1.895% last Friday, "highest the 2-yr yd has been since September
2008. We look for at least 3 rate hikes in 2018, and the market still hasn't
fully priced that in, so the 2-yr yd is likely to continue to climb."
- He said "the 1 7/8% coupon may look slightly attractive to some market
participants, but the 2-yr auctions have turned decidedly more mixed in recent
months as the yld has surged, and we expect" mixed 2Y auction "at best as well.'
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.