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Another Blow To PM With Second By-Election Loss In Safe Riding

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) suffered another blow on 16 September after it lost the parliamentary by-election in Montreal's LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding. This represents the second by-election loss in a riding previously seen as very safe for the LPC in just under three months. The result could pile further pressure on Trudeau following the collapse of the confidence-and-supply agreement with the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) earlier in September.

  • Louis-Philippe Sauvé from the regionalist pro-independence Bloc Quebecois won the riding with 28% of the vote, compared to 27.2% for the LPC candidate and 26.1% for the NDP. The seat had been Liberal since its creation in 2015.
  • Betting markets show only an 18% implied probability of Trudeau being ousted in a vote of no confidence in 2024, but with the next federal election due in Oct '25 it is also possible that the PM is ousted from inside rather than outside the party.
  • The other 16 Sep by-election saw the NDP retain Elmwood-Transcona in working-class east Winnipeg, Manitoba. The NDP holding the seat was widely expected (it has done so for 16 of the 20 years since its creation). Nevertheless, the centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) recorded its strongest result in the riding since it won the seat for a single term in 2011 in what will be seen as a boost to CPC leader Pierre Poilievre's ability to pick up votes in ridings the CPC have struggled in lately.
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) suffered another blow on 16 September after it lost the parliamentary by-election in Montreal's LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding. This represents the second by-election loss in a riding previously seen as very safe for the LPC in just under three months. The result could pile further pressure on Trudeau following the collapse of the confidence-and-supply agreement with the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) earlier in September.

  • Louis-Philippe Sauvé from the regionalist pro-independence Bloc Quebecois won the riding with 28% of the vote, compared to 27.2% for the LPC candidate and 26.1% for the NDP. The seat had been Liberal since its creation in 2015.
  • Betting markets show only an 18% implied probability of Trudeau being ousted in a vote of no confidence in 2024, but with the next federal election due in Oct '25 it is also possible that the PM is ousted from inside rather than outside the party.
  • The other 16 Sep by-election saw the NDP retain Elmwood-Transcona in working-class east Winnipeg, Manitoba. The NDP holding the seat was widely expected (it has done so for 16 of the 20 years since its creation). Nevertheless, the centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) recorded its strongest result in the riding since it won the seat for a single term in 2011 in what will be seen as a boost to CPC leader Pierre Poilievre's ability to pick up votes in ridings the CPC have struggled in lately.