Free Trial

Another By-Election Could Put More Pressure On PM Within Conservative Party


Another parliamentary by-election is in the offing after MP for Blackpool South Scott Bentonlost his appealagainst a 35-day suspension from parliament for his part in a lobbying scandal. The duration of his suspension means that a recall petition can be launched against Benton, with a by-election triggered if more than 10% of eligible voters in the constituency sign the petition. Benton has sat as an independent since the he was caught in a newspaper stingin April 2023 but was first elected as a Conservative in 2019, winning his seat from Labour with a majority of 3,960.

  • The likelihood of a by-election being called is high, and from then the prospect of PM Rishi Sunak's Conservatives retaining the seat is slim.
  • While a loss would not do any notable damage to gov'ts majority in parliament, it could further erode Sunak's standing within the Conservative party as a general election approaches, likely in Q424.
  • Since this point in 2023, seven parliamentary by-elections have taken place in Conservative seats. Of these, the party has gone on to lose six. Incumbent gov'ts losing by-elections is not out of the ordinary. However, some of the losses have seen historically large majorities overturned/electoral swings agains the Conservatives.
  • With a number of notable political events approaching, including the budget statement on 6 March and local elections on 2 May, the addition of another by-election loss to the tally could put more pressure on Sunak's leadership as he looks to overhaul a major polling deficit.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.