Another By-Election Could Put More Pressure On PM Within Conservative Party

Another parliamentary by-election is in the offing after MP for Blackpool South Scott Bentonlost his appealagainst a 35-day suspension from parliament for his part in a lobbying scandal. The duration of his suspension means that a recall petition can be launched against Benton, with a by-election triggered if more than 10% of eligible voters in the constituency sign the petition. Benton has sat as an independent since the he was caught in a newspaper stingin April 2023 but was first elected as a Conservative in 2019, winning his seat from Labour with a majority of 3,960.

• The likelihood of a by-election being called is high, and from then the prospect of PM Rishi Sunak's Conservatives retaining the seat is slim.
• While a loss would not do any notable damage to gov'ts majority in parliament, it could further erode Sunak's standing within the Conservative party as a general election approaches, likely in Q424.
• Since this point in 2023, seven parliamentary by-elections have taken place in Conservative seats. Of these, the party has gone on to lose six. Incumbent gov'ts losing by-elections is not out of the ordinary. However, some of the losses have seen historically large majorities overturned/electoral swings agains the Conservatives.
• With a number of notable political events approaching, including the budget statement on 6 March and local elections on 2 May, the addition of another by-election loss to the tally could put more pressure on Sunak's leadership as he looks to overhaul a major polling deficit.