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Another Jumbo ECB Hike Seems Feasible In December

ECB
  • A 75bp hike at this week’s meeting is close to being fully priced by the market and is the expected outcome among analysts. We have similarly opted for a 75bp move (see MNI’s ECB Preview).
  • Gauging by the notes that we have seen, opinions differ more widely on whether the ECB delivers another ‘jumbo’ hike in December, or decides to slow the pace. In the latter scenario, the ECB would likely be signalling that policy rates are getting closer to the natural rate.
  • At this stage, we still expect another 75bp move in December. We have yet to see a decisive end to the run of inflation surprises (and doubt that the outlook will have improved materially come December) and, given the widening spread between spot inflation and the target, we would err on the side of the caution and peg the terminal rate much higher than the ~2% level that has been touted by some members of the GC.
  • Market pricing on the terminal rate has been relatively sticky around the 3% mark by mid-2023. Although, interestingly, this has started to edge down slightly with the July-23 ESTR forward now trading at 2.89, down from a September high of 3.16%.
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