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Another Two To Three 25bps Hikes Priced In For This Year

CZECHIA
  • This morning, economic data showed that CPI inflation rose slightly higher than expected in June, +2.8% YoY (vs. 2.7% exp.) and down from 2.9% from the previous month.
  • Even though inflation is still standing below the 3% CNB upper tolerance band, inflationary pressures could continue to intensify in the second half of this year amid rising consumer demand combined with accelerating wage growth.
  • The CNB has started to tighten its monetary policy and raised interest rate by 0.25% to 0.5% last month for the first time since the pandemic, and will continue to gradually hike the policy rate in the coming months with Governor Jiri Rusnok recently signaling at least another two hikes for this year.
  • Market is also expecting another two to three 25bps hikes in the second half of this year with the FRA 6Mx9M currently trading 68bps above Pribor 3M (see chart).
  • Next CNB meeting will take place on August 5, and policymaker are very likely to raise the benchmark rate by another 25bps to 0.75%.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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