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Antipodean FX Remain Underperformers Despite Buoyant Equities

FOREX
  • CNH, AUD and NZD are the poorest performers across G10 on Monday following a softer-than-expected Chinese GDP release. While the data showed an acceleration from the Q1 print, it has prompted a number of sell-side firms to trim their growth expectation for this calendar year, with most trimming around 0.5ppts to forecast 5.0% annual growth this year.
  • A moderate risk-off tone prevailed in early trade following the data, helping JPY and CHF screen among the strongest initial performers in G10, eventually filtering through to a stronger greenback as the US session kicked off.
  • The greenback was then bolstered by a firmer-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing Index figure (+1.1 vs -3.5 estimate), prompting the USD index to trade to session highs back above the 100.00 mark. USDJPY had a notable recovery from the 138.00 overnight lows to reach as high 139.41. Despite the bounce, the bear cycle that started Jun 30 is still underway for the pair. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is back inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. A continuation lower would open 136.57, the lower band of a moving average envelope.
  • As the dust settled on a quiet Monday, equities resumed their strengthening trend and the USD slowly edged lower throughout the session and the DXY remains close to unchanged as we approach Tuesday’s APAC crossover.
  • RBA minutes are due overnight before Tuesday’s release of Canadian CPI and US retail sales. The other notable release this week will be Wednesday’s release of UK CPI.
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