MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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FOREX: Antipodean FX Sharply Weaker, Fully Reverses China-Inspired Gains

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  • The USD index looks set to post its third consecutive session of gains Tuesday, advancing 0.34% to 106.50 ahead of the APAC crossover. The dollar strength is most notable against both AUD and NZD in a sharp reversal of the China-inspired sentiment to start the week.
  • Antipodean currencies have fallen over 1% against the dollar, and notably have made fresh lows on the week. Aussie losses have been driven by a dovish pivot from the RBA, who noted growing confidence that inflationary pressures are declining.
  • Multiple lows at 0.6380 this week are giving way in AUDUSD, turning attention to key support at 0.6350 and 0.6339. Below here, attention would be on 0.6259, the 1.00 projection of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing.
  • For NZDUSD, a breach of 0.5797 would place the pair at the lowest level since November 2023, with 0.5774 the next notable support.
  • EURUSD is edging back towards 1.0500 as the post payrolls reversal extends to over 1%, and as noted above, punchy option expiries between 1.05/06 could provide an obstacle to a more significant breakout at this juncture ahead of the ECB.
  • For USDJPY, further upward pressure on core yields have weighed on the Yen Tuesday, with the pair extending the most recent recovery to around 2.4%. Spot is now back above the 20-day EMA, and a close back above this average would bolster the case for a more protracted recovery to the bull trigger at 156.75, Nov 15 high.
  • Global focus turns to US CPI, the final piece of the puzzle before the December fed decision, significant given the Fed remains in its media blackout period.
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  • The USD index looks set to post its third consecutive session of gains Tuesday, advancing 0.34% to 106.50 ahead of the APAC crossover. The dollar strength is most notable against both AUD and NZD in a sharp reversal of the China-inspired sentiment to start the week.
  • Antipodean currencies have fallen over 1% against the dollar, and notably have made fresh lows on the week. Aussie losses have been driven by a dovish pivot from the RBA, who noted growing confidence that inflationary pressures are declining.
  • Multiple lows at 0.6380 this week are giving way in AUDUSD, turning attention to key support at 0.6350 and 0.6339. Below here, attention would be on 0.6259, the 1.00 projection of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing.
  • For NZDUSD, a breach of 0.5797 would place the pair at the lowest level since November 2023, with 0.5774 the next notable support.
  • EURUSD is edging back towards 1.0500 as the post payrolls reversal extends to over 1%, and as noted above, punchy option expiries between 1.05/06 could provide an obstacle to a more significant breakout at this juncture ahead of the ECB.
  • For USDJPY, further upward pressure on core yields have weighed on the Yen Tuesday, with the pair extending the most recent recovery to around 2.4%. Spot is now back above the 20-day EMA, and a close back above this average would bolster the case for a more protracted recovery to the bull trigger at 156.75, Nov 15 high.
  • Global focus turns to US CPI, the final piece of the puzzle before the December fed decision, significant given the Fed remains in its media blackout period.