ANZ Consumer Confidence Rises Again But Still Depressed

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 1% in the latest week, its second consecutive weekly rise, and is now slightly above the 4-week average. But it remains very depressed and well below its long-run average. ANZ notes that it remains in contrast to its card data showing robust spending trends. Thus, the RBA is likely to continue monitoring households and their elevated inflation expectations.

• Inflation expectations came down slightly to 6.3% from 6.5% and the recent peak of 6.8% the week before. They remain elevated and this was the 6^th consecutive week above 6%. Petrol prices also fell 2.6% last week but the November average is still up 7.9% m/m, inflation expectations tend to move in the same direction.
• The sub-indices remain below their long-run averages. Current and future financial conditions and current economic conditions all fell, while future economic conditions rose again to their highest level since end September.
• The “time to buy a major household item” jumped 9.2% in the latest week after falling 13% over the previous 6 weeks, as Black Friday discounts appear. Black Friday has become the largest discount event in the retail calendar.
• The gain in confidence wasn’t across all states with 2 down and 3 up.