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AUSSIE: ANZ note that "the AUD has pushed towards our terminal forecast of
$0.70, as the risk backdrop remains unsupportive, most notably via the
U.S.-China trade tiff. All the while, typical drivers are still adrift. Although
favourable, the terms of trade are only sufficient to add some stability to the
AUD, rather than drive gains. Similarly, the domestic economy is a 'neutral'
influence given RBA inaction & so rate differentials remain unsupportive. Recent
AUD weakness means it is trading somewhat cheap relative to fair value. This
signals that it will remain at the mercy of global risk appetite rather than
that it is providing compelling value at current levels. From a medium term
perspective, we still anticipate a -ve outlook for liquidity. By extension, the
outlook for market vol is likely to be higher. This should continue to frustrate
AUD bulls. In sum, without a solid domestic story & with few upsides coming from
the commodity side, the AUD will likely remain at the mercy of the global risk
environment. In the near term, some stability in China's growth could help at
the margin, but more broadly, sentiment is too fragile to bank on any sustained
risk relief rally. We continue to keep a mild bearish bias for the AUD."