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ANZ recommend selling USD/JPY at.........>

DOLLAR-YEN
DOLLAR-YEN: ANZ recommend selling USD/JPY at 110.96 with a stop at Y112.50 and
an initial target of Y107.00.
- ANZ point to "increased risk that USD/JPY weakens from here, as long USD
(short JPY) positions neutralise. While 3-months implied vol. in USD/JPY has
risen somewhat since last week, we think it looks too low, given the risks over
the next weeks. Importantly, valuation consideration suggests heightened risk of
a reversal in USD/JPY. Our fair value model shows that USD/JPY should be much
lower and its over-valuation has reached extremely stretched levels. Finally,
geopolitics is still a focus for markets, & plenty of catalysts this week could
re-ignite concerns (not least the Manafort Trial starting on the 25th). Our
model of Japanese flow suggests risk is a key factor in explaining shifts in net
flows, the higher the uncertainty the lower the net outflows. Even from a
domestic point of view, reports that the Bank of Japan may tweak its current
policy settings at its 31 July meeting - in a way that would lead to a de facto
tightening in monetary policy - also may help drive USD/JPY lower."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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