ANZ Revise Inflation Forecast Higher

Note that late on Tuesday ANZ “revised up inflation forecasts and expect annual inflation to peak in Q422. We see headline CPI getting to 7.4% Y/Y (previously 7.0% Y/Y) and trimmed mean reaching 5.6% Y/Y (previously 5.3% Y/Y). The sharp acceleration in price and cost growth in NAB’s July business survey suggests there is even more momentum than we had factored in. This is consistent with ongoing and widespread anecdotes of cost pass-through, including of the significant electricity and gas price increases that larger companies experienced in Q2. Near-term volatility is a risk given many key goods and services are at different points in this exaggerated price cycle. Fuel and some other commodity prices are coming down. In aggregate, we think quarterly inflation will continue at a rapid clip in H2 2022, albeit at a slower pace than at the peak earlier this year.”