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NEW ZEALAND: ANZ suggest that the RBNZ's "November MPS struck a more upbeat
tone, with the RBNZ moving firmly back to a neutral stance with the risk profile
balanced, rather than skewed to the downside. The RBNZ now sees the medium term
for non-tradable inflation as more assured, and accordingly, the market has now
priced out the possibility of OCR cuts. We remain a little more circumspect and
are comfortable with our call that the OCR will remain on hold for the
foreseeable future, compared with the RBNZ's projection for eventual increases.
That said, looking through potential noise, a considerably stronger labour
market starting point suggests that the economy has moved into stretched
territory. This makes us also a little more upbeat on the apparent resilience of
the economy. Evidence of broad-based inflation pressures remains scant and a
number of growth headwinds remain."