ANZ suggest that "the recent data.......>

NEW ZEALAND: ANZ suggest that "the recent data flow has been weak and the market

has moved to price in around 50% chance of an OCR cut by mid next year. Our view

is certainly that a cut is more likely than a hike, but is it time to

definitively call cuts? We are leaning that way, but are not over the line yet.

Our ANZ Business Outlook Survey has been very downbeat, but it is also possible

that the survey could be overstating current weakness. We always look at a range

of data to assess the state of the economy and so far the picture is looking

softer, but very mixed. We suspect that the RBNZ may well be willing to

front-foot a response to a slowing before seeing it manifest in official GDP

data, but it would nonetheless need to be convinced that the slowdown is real

and relatively broad-based, and that extra monetary policy support is therefore

warranted. As such, there is a range of developments we - and the RBNZ - will be

watching closely over the next couple of months."