ANZ write that "NZD/USD is well up from its....>

KIWI: ANZ write that "NZD/USD is well up from its cycle lows, and in many ways

that is justified as RBNZ rate cuts are priced out and the curve steepens.

Positioning has no doubt exacerbated the move in both rates and FX. We have long

held a bearish bias towards the NZD/USD. However, given the shifting risks

around the domestic rates outlook, it is now unlikely that our earlier 0.62

end-2018 forecast will be achieved and we have altered our forecasts

accordingly. That said, we are happy to retain a medium-term bearish bias. Risk

appetites are in the box seat at present and we can't rule out further

improvement. But a number of factors warrant caution, not least the softer

global growth picture, tightening liquidity, and the fragile political

landscape. In addition, the local rates market has now moved to an extent where

the bar for positive surprises is far higher. And together with waning export

commodity prices, this should cap NZD moves. We retain a forecast target for the

NZD/USD of 0.61, but have pushed out when we expect this to be achieved to Q3

2019. We have lifted our end-2018 forecast to 0.65. This takes our end-2018 and

end-2019 forecasts for AUD/NZD to 1.06 and 1.15 respectively."