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April Inflation Due Before Banxico Meeting Next Week

MEXICO
  • With the May 18 Banxico meeting looking to be a tight call between another 25bp hike and an unchanged decision, today’s April inflation (due 1300BST/0800ET) data could be pivotal for setting final expectations ahead of the meeting.
  • Headline inflation is seen slowing to 6.22% Y/y from 6.24% at the mid-March reading, but perhaps more importantly for the central bank board, Core CPI is expected to dip to 7.69% from 7.75% in mid-March. Decelerating global inflation, base effects and accumulated peso appreciation are expected to contribute with persistent services inflation also likely to slow. For reference, the central bank projection is for an average headline inflation rate of 6.4% in the second quarter.
    • April CPI M/m, est. -0.04%, prior 0.27%
    • April CPI Y/y, est. 6.22%, prior 6.85%
    • April CPI Core M/m, est. 0.41%, prior 0.52%
    • April CPI Core Y/y, est. 7.69%, prior 8.09%
  • Separately, President AMLO said he would be talking to US President Joe Biden on Tuesday morning about migration, fentanyl and development.
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