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April Inflation Flat at +5.9% y/y

SOUTH AFRICA
MNI (London)

SOUTH AFRICA APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 5.9% Y/Y; EST. +5.9% (MAR +5.9%)
SOUTH AFRICA APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.6% M/M; EST. +0.6% (MAR +1.0%)
SOUTH AFRICA APRIL CORE CPI RISES 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3% (MAR +0.8%)
SOUTH AFRICA APRIL CORE CPI RISES 3.9% Y/Y; EST. +3.8% (MAR +3.8%)

  • South African inflation held steady at 5.9% y/y in April, unchanged from March. The monthly rate softened to +0.6% m/m from +1.0% m/m.
  • Core inflation saw a 0.1pp uptick above forecasts to +0.4% m/m and +3.8% y/y.
  • Record fuel prices (+2.2% m/m), private transport costs (+2.1% m/m) and food prices (at +0.7% m/m largely due to oils and fats) accounted for the bulk of inflationary pressure.
  • With inflation testing the top of the 3-6% target range, a 50bp hike is priced in for the upcoming SARB meeting tomorrow. The upper bound was last exceeded in March 2017 with CPI at +6.1% y/y.
  • The SARB has had its hand pushed to hike more than initially anticipated due to the Ukraine supply shock and the Fed's hawkish hiking cycle.

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