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April Inflation: Wide Range Of Analyst Core Expectations (1/2)

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Additional analysts have published their estimates for Eurozone April HICP after we released our preview last week (and of course, ahead of the Spanish readings this morning). Generally, while most analysts expect headline to come in broadly flat at around 2.4% Y/Y, there is a wide range of core measure estimates, with the forecasts we have received ranging from 2.45% (DB) to 2.8% (ING).

  • Highlights from the additional analysts estimates in ascending order of Core HICP forecast, see below (and see MNI preview in link above for others):
  • HSBC: Core 2.4%, headline 2.2%. "we see headline inflation falling on the back of base effects and sustained disinflation in core industrial goods which should also push core inflation down"
  • Daiwa: Core 2.5%, headline 2.4%: "While the pass-through of higher oil costs poses an upside risk to components such as airfares, the slide in core inflation will be principally due to a big step down in the services component, from 4.0%Y/Y to 3½%Y/Y or less, benefitting in part from a significant base effect."
  • NatWest: Core 2.6%, headline 2.3%.
  • Danske: Core 2.6%, headline 2.4%.
  • Scotia: Core 2.7%, headline 2.4% "There may be further upside risk to this expectation. Gasoline prices have risen by 9% since December’s low and were up by 4.3% m/m NSA in April over March which was considerably more than is seasonally normal. I don’t subscribe to the case for the ECB to be in a rush to cut."
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Additional analysts have published their estimates for Eurozone April HICP after we released our preview last week (and of course, ahead of the Spanish readings this morning). Generally, while most analysts expect headline to come in broadly flat at around 2.4% Y/Y, there is a wide range of core measure estimates, with the forecasts we have received ranging from 2.45% (DB) to 2.8% (ING).

  • Highlights from the additional analysts estimates in ascending order of Core HICP forecast, see below (and see MNI preview in link above for others):
  • HSBC: Core 2.4%, headline 2.2%. "we see headline inflation falling on the back of base effects and sustained disinflation in core industrial goods which should also push core inflation down"
  • Daiwa: Core 2.5%, headline 2.4%: "While the pass-through of higher oil costs poses an upside risk to components such as airfares, the slide in core inflation will be principally due to a big step down in the services component, from 4.0%Y/Y to 3½%Y/Y or less, benefitting in part from a significant base effect."
  • NatWest: Core 2.6%, headline 2.3%.
  • Danske: Core 2.6%, headline 2.4%.
  • Scotia: Core 2.7%, headline 2.4% "There may be further upside risk to this expectation. Gasoline prices have risen by 9% since December’s low and were up by 4.3% m/m NSA in April over March which was considerably more than is seasonally normal. I don’t subscribe to the case for the ECB to be in a rush to cut."