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April Inflation: Wide Range Of Analyst Core Expectations (2/2)

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Further highlights from the additional analysts previews in ascending order of Core HICP forecast see below:
  • Lloyds: Core 2.7%, headline 2.5%. "The data is unlikely to stand in the way of the ECB cutting interest rates in June but it may lend some support to the more hawkish policymakers who want to be cautious about signalling further reductions."
  • SocGen: Core 2.7%, headline 2.5%. "we believe the unwinding of government support and stronger fuel prices should push the headline figure up [...] While the earlier Easter holiday effect wasn’t that strong this year, it still notably increased German and Italian air fares and so there should be a partial correction in April. Plus, restaurant prices, which are around 20% of the services basket, are noticeably weaker than last year"
  • TD Securities: Core 2.7%. "Headline inflation likely moved sideways in the EZ in April while core ticked down." Higher petrol prices and sharp increases in German and Spanish natural gas VAT should be a key sources of strength, while a potential normalization in services, following what appears to have been Easter driven strength in March, adds some downside pressure on the prints."
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Further highlights from the additional analysts previews in ascending order of Core HICP forecast see below:
  • Lloyds: Core 2.7%, headline 2.5%. "The data is unlikely to stand in the way of the ECB cutting interest rates in June but it may lend some support to the more hawkish policymakers who want to be cautious about signalling further reductions."
  • SocGen: Core 2.7%, headline 2.5%. "we believe the unwinding of government support and stronger fuel prices should push the headline figure up [...] While the earlier Easter holiday effect wasn’t that strong this year, it still notably increased German and Italian air fares and so there should be a partial correction in April. Plus, restaurant prices, which are around 20% of the services basket, are noticeably weaker than last year"
  • TD Securities: Core 2.7%. "Headline inflation likely moved sideways in the EZ in April while core ticked down." Higher petrol prices and sharp increases in German and Spanish natural gas VAT should be a key sources of strength, while a potential normalization in services, following what appears to have been Easter driven strength in March, adds some downside pressure on the prints."