April Jobs Surprise

Not your typical NFP jobs Friday: gap bid in Tsys after April employment report came out much weaker than expected with +266k job gains vs. +1 million mean estimate. Heavy volumes on two-way flow post-data (TYM1 appr 850k 20minutes after the release; 2.6m by the close), as futures scaled back appr half the move on lower than expected April jobs

• April Jobs-Miss Debate: whether due to seasonal adjustments or employable people staying at home (either due to safety concerns or collecting very generous jobless benefits), some feel it's not the health of the recovery, but the pace that is being impeded by supply constraints. The Fed will continue to be very patient. That said, Tsy futures have reversed early gains, curves bending steeper with Bonds broadly weaker into midday (5s30s topped 150.8).
• Not a noticeable reaction in rates as Pres Biden discusses April jobs report and American Rescue Plan. Tsys continue to inch lower in long end 2s-10s paring gains. Bonds continue to trade weaker -- TYM1 nearly back to steady on day -- comments from Tsy Sec Yellen on jobs data notwithstanding.
• Note 10Y breakeven hits 2.4993% Highest since early April 2013 while equities made new all-time high of 4232.25. The 2-Yr yield is down 1bps at 0.1429%, 5-Yr is down 3.4bps at 0.7708%, 10-Yr is up 0.8bps at 1.5771%, and 30-Yr is up 3.4bps at 2.2761%.