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ARGENTINA: Itaú Sees 4.0% Growth Next Year, After Economy Expanded In Q3

ARGENTINA
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  • Itaú notes that despite the fall in activity in September, the upward revisions to the two previous months, still lead to strong growth over the quarter. The economy expanded by 3.4% q/q (sa) in Q3, after falling in the three previous quarters. They say that that the seasonally adjusted GDP proxy exceeded the level of December 2023, ending the recession and providing a statistical carryover of -3.1% for 2024.
  • Most of the sectors contracted at a softer rate on an annual basis in Q3, as the effects of the stabilisation measures faded, with construction down by 16.6% y/y, manufacturing by 6.2% and services by 3.5%. Supported by the recovery of the agricultural sector from drought, primary activities rose by 8.5% y/y.
  • With activity rebounding by more than expected over the quarter, Itaú sees upside risks to their -3.5% GDP forecast for this year. For next year, they expect growth of 4.0%, supported by a higher statistical carry-over, the recovery in real wages and a better investment environment.
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  • Itaú notes that despite the fall in activity in September, the upward revisions to the two previous months, still lead to strong growth over the quarter. The economy expanded by 3.4% q/q (sa) in Q3, after falling in the three previous quarters. They say that that the seasonally adjusted GDP proxy exceeded the level of December 2023, ending the recession and providing a statistical carryover of -3.1% for 2024.
  • Most of the sectors contracted at a softer rate on an annual basis in Q3, as the effects of the stabilisation measures faded, with construction down by 16.6% y/y, manufacturing by 6.2% and services by 3.5%. Supported by the recovery of the agricultural sector from drought, primary activities rose by 8.5% y/y.
  • With activity rebounding by more than expected over the quarter, Itaú sees upside risks to their -3.5% GDP forecast for this year. For next year, they expect growth of 4.0%, supported by a higher statistical carry-over, the recovery in real wages and a better investment environment.