Asia-Pacific Week Ahead

     JAPAN

     The highlight of the week will release of the Bank of Japan's Tankan

quarterly business survey, which is expected to show sentiment among many

business sectors improved from three months ago, thanks to firmer global demand

and resilient domestic consumption. The market will watch closely business'

capital inflation plans and inflation expectations.

     Bank of Japan

     Monday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The BOJ releases its quarterly

Tankan business sentiment survey for September. The median forecasts: major

manufacturer diffusion index +18 vs. +17 in June; major non-manufacturer DI +23

vs. +23 in June; small manufacturer DI +8 vs. +7 in June and small

non-manufacturer DI +7 vs. +7 in June. Capital investment plans by major firms

+8.4% vs. 8.0% in June.

     Tuesday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT Monday): The BOJ releases inflation

     outlook in September Tankan. In the June survey, companies on average

     revised up their expectations for the consumer price index for one and

     three years ahead from the previous Tankan survey, but left their inflation

outlook for five years ahead unchanged from March.

     Friday, 1:30 pm JST (0430 GMT): The BOJ release its quarterly survey on

consumer sentiment, inflation outlook.

     Data

     Tuesday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases the outcome of

the September Consumer Confidence Survey. In August, the confidence index

slipped 0.5 point to 43.3 on a seasonally adjusted basis, posting the first

month-on-month drop in two months, hit by bad weather and heightened tensions

between North Korea and the U.S.

     Friday, 9 am JST (0000 GMT): The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

releases preliminary August wages. In revised data, July total monthly average

cash earning per regular employee fell 0.6% on year for the first drop in 14

months after rising 0.4% in June, due to a slump in summer bonuses. In real

terms, average wages fell 1.1% on year for the second straight drop. Base wages

rose 0.5% on year, showing the gradual uptrend. Overtime pay rose 0.2% but

bonuses and other special pay fell 3.1%.

     Japanese Government Bonds

     Japanese government bond yields may fall following the recent rise if the

yen appreciates. The 10-year JGB yield is expected to move between 0.025% and

0.065% this week against the bank's target of around zero. It rose to 0.075% on

Thursday for the highest level since Aug. 1 after falling to -0.010% on Sept. 8,

the lowest since Nov. 15, 2016.

     Tuesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y2.3 trillion of 10-year bonds.

     Wednesday: The MOF to auction Y2.3 trillion of six-month Treasury.

     BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of 1-3,

     3-5, 5-10 years expected.

     Thursday: The MOF to auction Y400 billion of 10-year inflation-indexed

bonds and Y4.4 trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills.

     Friday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

5-10, 10-25 and more than 25 years expected.

     AUSTRALIA

     It's a short week due to the Labor Day holiday on Monday, with the

highlight the RBA's monthly cash rate decision on Tuesday. The Labor Day is

observed in three states including New South Wales, so there are still the usual

first day of the month releases.

     RBA

     Tuesday, 2:30 pm local (0330 GMT), the RBA publishes the cash rate

decision, where the unanimous view of both the market and economists is for the

RBA to leave the rate on hold at 1.5%. This is the first time in a long time

that all economists are unanimous in their view that the 1.5% cash rate will be

the low for this cycle. Many expect the rate hike process to begin in 2018, with

some expecting the first hike as early as Q1 next year while a few expect the

cash rate to stay at 1.5% for longer.

     Data

     Monday, 9:30 am local (2230 GMT Sunday) AI Group will release its

performance of manufacturing index, which is expected to expand for the 12th

straight month, though the pace may slow from August's record 59.8 points. At

10:00 am local (2300 GMT Sunday) CoreLogic publishes its house price index,

which is expected to show a tiny m/m rise in September compared with a flat

outcome in August.

     Tuesday, 9:30 am local (2230 GMT Monday) the ANZ-Roy Morgan's weekly

consumer confidence index will be released. At 11:30 am local (0030 GMT) the ABS

will publish dwelling approvals for August, where MNI median forecast is for a

1.0% m/m increase after a 1.7% fall in July. At the same time is ANZ will

publish its Job Ads index for September, with an expectation for a smaller

increase following a 2.0% m/m rise in August.

     Wednesday, 9:30 am local (2230 GMT Tuesday) AI Group publishes its

performance of services index for September, which is expected to continue to

show expansion but the focus will be on retail trade which has contracted since

April.

     Thursday, 11:30 am local (0030 GMT) the ABS publishes retail sales for

August, with MNI survey median forecast for 0.2% m/m rise compared with flat

outcome in July. At the same time, the ABS releases the international trade

balance for August, with the expectation is for a surplus of A$800 million

compared with a surplus of A$460 million in July.

     Friday, 9:30 am local (2230 GMT Thursday) the AI Group publishes its

performance of construction index, which is expected to continue to show

expansion. The focus will be on commercial (50.2 in August) and (44.7 in August)

apartment construction activity.

     NEW ZEALAND

     It's a quiet week with no major economic data releases due, so the focus

will be on political developments as the remaining votes for the general

elections are counted.

     RBNZ

     No major data or event is due.

     CHINA

     Chinese mainland markets will be closed all week for the National

Day/Autumn Festival holiday. They will reopen on Monday, Oct. 9.

     Data

     Saturday, Oct. 7, time uncertain: Chinese foreign exchange reserves data

for September will be released. In August, reserves rose $10.81 billion to

$3.0915 trillion, the sixth increase in a row to the highest level since last

October, although the increase in August was less than the $23.93 billion rise

in July.

--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: john.carter@mni-news.com

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