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Asia-US High Yield Bond Spread Reaches 10Y High

US
  • The chart below shows that the high yield bond spread between Asia and US has recently reached a 10-year high at 350bps.
  • After reached a low of -200bps in 2015, the spread has been gradually rising in the past 5 years, with the next key 'resistance' standing at 430bps.
  • Interestingly, the significant divergence in debt ratios between Asia and Western economies (i.e. US) following the Covid shock did not lead to a sharp increase in risk premium in US High Yield bonds (relative to Asian HY bonds).
  • Hence, the Fed hawkish stance could also generate a sudden negative surprise in the high yield market as index prices have been surging in the past year due to the constant liquidity injections from major central banks.

Source: Morgan Stanley

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