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Asian Oil Refiners Will Be First to Cut Run Rates On Declining Margins

OIL

Asian refining margins have fallen below five-year historical averages, leaving oil-processing plants in that region most vulnerable to reduced processing rates, according to Wood Mackenzie.

  • “Should refining margins continue to weaken, we suspect Asian refiners, outside of China, will be the first to cut runs,” Alan Gelder, VP for refining, chemicals and oil markets, said.
  • If China’s post-Covid recovery is weaker than expected, China could boost fuel exports which would depress margins globally and could prompt run cuts in Europe, Gelder added.
  • In the near term, Atlantic Basin refiners will boost crude runs as plants return from maintenance ahead of US driving season, when gasoline demand usually rises in spring and summer.
  • In Europe and the US, margins remain at or above five-year seasonal averages, excluding 2022.
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