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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Points To Technical Recession

  • The nowcast falls to an annualized -1.01% for Q2 having last been revised up from flat to +0.26% with the Jun 27 update.
  • It comes from the inventory drag widening from -1.4pp to a hefty -2.4pp but consumer spending also takes a hit, down from 1.81pp to 1.17pp after the soft spending data earlier.
  • If confirmed it would follow the GDP contraction of -1.6% annualized seen in Q1, with two quarters of negative growth last seen in 1H20 and prior to that 1H09.

Source: Atlanta Fed

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