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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Revised Lower On Consumption

US DATA
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker revises Q1 real GDP growth down to 2.34% annualized vs the 2.54% at the Mar 7 estimate. Whilst still relatively resilient, the tracker has generally trended lower since the earliest vintages for Q1.
  • It would follow two quarters averaging 4.0% annualized in 2H23 but remain above the 2.15% averaged in 1H23.
  • Latest downward revision for personal consumption (2.9% to 2.2%) vs upward revisions for private domestic investment (1.7% to 3.0%) and government spending (2.4% to 2.7%).
  • It follows Morgan Stanley revising down their Q1 GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.0% after retail sales, based on consumption being lowered from 2.2% to 1.6% “due to significant downward revisions to dining out in January and broad-based downward revisions to December”.

Source: Atlanta Fed

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