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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Atlanta Fed Nowcast GDP Sharply Downgraded For Q4

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
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The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q4 - the final reading for the quarter ahead of Thursday's official GDP release - has been downgraded significantly.

  • They now see 2.3% growth, down from 3.2% yesterday. As we had flagged earlier today, the much larger than expected goods trade deficit reading for December would be negative for GDP - while inventories also came in on the weak side:
  • "After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.1 percent to -0.9 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.10 percentage points to -0.61 percentage points."
  • The 2.3% forecast equals the lowest for the quarter made by the Atlanta Fed, and compares to a high of 3.4% reached on Dec 11. It's also below the 2.7% consensus. Note, Q3 GDP was 3.1%. 

 

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The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q4 - the final reading for the quarter ahead of Thursday's official GDP release - has been downgraded significantly.

  • They now see 2.3% growth, down from 3.2% yesterday. As we had flagged earlier today, the much larger than expected goods trade deficit reading for December would be negative for GDP - while inventories also came in on the weak side:
  • "After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.1 percent to -0.9 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.10 percentage points to -0.61 percentage points."
  • The 2.3% forecast equals the lowest for the quarter made by the Atlanta Fed, and compares to a high of 3.4% reached on Dec 11. It's also below the 2.7% consensus. Note, Q3 GDP was 3.1%. 

 

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