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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic is the third FOMC official in the past two days to reveal his March SEP 'dot plot' hike thinking, telling the Wall Street Journal that he sees the Fed beginning liftoff in 2023 (and adding that his view on that hasn't changed since December).
- He also reiterated that it would be a "fair amount of time" before contemplating a taper.
- Reading the tea leaves a little: given these comments it appears he was one of 5 FOMC members who saw 2023 liftoff in the December SEP, and one of 7 in the March SEP.
- Less clear is whether his dot has shifted higher vs Dec, but given that he said he thinks that liftoff will happen in the 1st half of 2023, it would make sense if he sees 2+ hikes for the year as a whole (only one of the 7 2023 hikers sees just one 25bps increase).
- Dallas Pres Kaplan said Tuesday he had pencilled in a 2022 hike, so he's one of the 4 for that year, and another one of the 7 in 2023. St Louis's Bullard is not one of the 7 (he said Tuesday he saw rates on hold through 2023).
- Obviously the dot plot is not a commitment to future policy, but this is arguably a marginally dovish development for short-end rates. Bostic is a 2021 FOMC voter and was seen as a candidate to be in the hawkish/2022 rate hike camp, i.e. open to early liftoff (he said in early Jan that he saw the possibility of a 2022 liftoff).
- The question of course is, who are the other 3 2022 hike dots apart from Kaplan.
Mar 2021 SEP Dot PlotSource: Federal Reserve
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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