Attack On Consulate In Syria Risks Regional Escalation

The bombing of the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on 1 April has spiked regional tensions and risks an escalation in offensive actitivies by Iran's proxies in the Middle East against Israel. Following the drone attack on an annex to the Iranian embassy, Tehran swiftly laid the blame at Israel's door. President Ebrahim Raisi claimed that the attacks 'will not go unanswered'. In line with its long-standing policy, Israel neither claimed nor denied responsibility for the attack that killed as many as 11, including three senior figures from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

• The attack raises the ante on a number of accounts. Firstly, it was on a building within the embassy complex. Usually diplomatic buildings such as embassies and consulates would be off limits for such attacks, and one coming under fire could see some form of tit-for-tat retaliation on Israeli facilities in other nations.
• Tensions on Israel's northern border with Lebanon could escalate following the strike, with a heavily-armed Hezbollah given greater leeway from Tehran to strike into Israel.
• Despite the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and the military focus on Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, the attack breaks something of a calm period with regards to Iran. Since an attack by Iranian-backed militias on a US base in Jordan at the start of the year, there has been a notable decline in militia activity as Iran has sought to avoid a major increase in US military activity in the region. The attack on the Embassy, and any Iranian retaliation could reverse this.