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AUD/NZD Slightly Lower, Hold Above 100-Day EMA After A Small Bounce Late

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD has traded lower for the fourth straight session, slipping 0.09% to 1.0953. The cross did see a small late bounce after hitting a session low of 1.0941.
  • The cross broke back below the 20 & 50-day EMAs on Tuesday, and is trading just above the 100-day EMA now, the 14-Day RSI is steady at 46, while the MACD is printing a small red bar on Wednesday. Initial support is at 1.0937 (100-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 1.0889 (200-day EMA), while to the upside 1.1000 (round number) is key resistance.
  • RBA dated OIS is pricing in little chance of a cut over the next two meetings, in line with what the RBA has come out saying, December OIS is back to pricing in 25bps of cuts, with a jump to 40bps of cuts at the Feb meeting.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread fell 5ps on Wednesday to -10bps
  • Expiries: 1.1300 ($601.78m) for Aug 22nd NY cut,
  • Today, we have Judo Bank PMI and 2028 bond auction

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