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AUD/NZD Steady, AU-NZ 2yr Swaps Nears Highs, NZ Trade Surplus Widens

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD has opened trading this week a touch lower at 1.1117, down 0.05%. The cross trades towards the top of last weeks ranges (1.1060 - 1.1140).
  • There is very little on the local calendar this week, while China also remains light on for data, the cross has spent the past week or so treading water just above 1.1100. The 14-day RSI has been in overbought territory for much of the past week and now sits at 68, while the MACD indictor is showing decreasing positive bars signaling a potential reversal.
  • Technical levels to watch will be; Resistance at 1.1152 (yearly high) a break here would open a move to 1.1200, while support rests at 1.1030 (20-day EMA) a break would signal a protentional directional change and open up a test of 1.1000 (July 10 lows/ pre-RBNZ).
  • Earlier this morning NZ trade balance surplus widened to NZ$699m, with imports falling 21.1% m/m to 5.474b, while exports fell 11.8 to 6.173. Exports rose to Australia, although m/m fell 17.4% to China, 23.8% to Japan & 11.9% to the US.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread continues to trade higher and reach multi-year highs of -4bps on Friday. We are 2bps lower this morning at -6bps, following a 45bps rally in July.
  • Expiries: 1.1175 ($152.13m) July 24, 1.105 ($153.85m) July 26
  • The week ahead, Australia has Judo Bank PMI on Wednesday while New Zealand had ANZ Consumer Confidence on Friday
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