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AUD on Top as CPI Limits RBA

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  • AUD is outperforming, rising against all others in G10 on the back of the hotter-than-expected CPI release overnight. Quarterly CPI rose 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.8% and strength in trimmed mean metrics gives the RBA less room to consider a first rate cut of the cycle later in 2024. Support for AUD has put AUD/USD within range of clustered resistance at the 200- and 50-dmas (0.6529 and 0.6534 respectively).
  • Scandi currencies are on the softer side, responding to a sharp uptick in the Swedish unemployment rate metrics - the March SA unemployment rate surprisingly rose 8.6% from a revised 8.1% - the highest since mid-2021. EUR/SEK is higher in return, rising for the first session in five.
  • The USD Index is middling-to-higher, recovering a small part of the PMI-induced losses posted during the Tuesday session, aiding both EUR/USD and GBP/USD off the overnight highs.
  • USD/JPY printed a new cycle best in early Europe/late Asia, keeping market focus on the tolerance of the Japanese authorities toward protracted currency weakness. Nikkei reported late yesterday that the BoJ board will discuss JPY performance at this week's meeting, leaving markets to maintain a moderate downside skew for USD/JPY in near-term options pricing.
  • Focus for the session ahead turns to prelim March durable goods orders data on top of Canadian retail sales and the BoC minutes release. The speaker slate is considerably quieter relative to a busier beginning of the week, with no major appearances set from the ECB or BoE. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
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  • AUD is outperforming, rising against all others in G10 on the back of the hotter-than-expected CPI release overnight. Quarterly CPI rose 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.8% and strength in trimmed mean metrics gives the RBA less room to consider a first rate cut of the cycle later in 2024. Support for AUD has put AUD/USD within range of clustered resistance at the 200- and 50-dmas (0.6529 and 0.6534 respectively).
  • Scandi currencies are on the softer side, responding to a sharp uptick in the Swedish unemployment rate metrics - the March SA unemployment rate surprisingly rose 8.6% from a revised 8.1% - the highest since mid-2021. EUR/SEK is higher in return, rising for the first session in five.
  • The USD Index is middling-to-higher, recovering a small part of the PMI-induced losses posted during the Tuesday session, aiding both EUR/USD and GBP/USD off the overnight highs.
  • USD/JPY printed a new cycle best in early Europe/late Asia, keeping market focus on the tolerance of the Japanese authorities toward protracted currency weakness. Nikkei reported late yesterday that the BoJ board will discuss JPY performance at this week's meeting, leaving markets to maintain a moderate downside skew for USD/JPY in near-term options pricing.
  • Focus for the session ahead turns to prelim March durable goods orders data on top of Canadian retail sales and the BoC minutes release. The speaker slate is considerably quieter relative to a busier beginning of the week, with no major appearances set from the ECB or BoE. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.